نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Housing, as one of the most fundamental human needs and a key component of sustainable urban development, has always been a focal point for urban planners, policymakers, and researchers. The housing market, in particular, stands as one of the most dynamic and unpredictable sectors of the economy. In a metropolis like Tehran, gaining a precise understanding of the developments and prevailing trends within the housing sector at local scales is vital for formulating effective and responsive strategies to meet the diverse and growing needs of its residents. District 19 of Tehran, due to its unique physical, social, and economic characteristics, represents a significant arena of dynamism and challenges within the housing domain. Deeply comprehending the critical housing-related variables in such contexts necessitates the application of powerful analytical tools capable of disentangling intra-district factors from broader macro-level influences and general trends. In this article, employing the Shift-Share Analysis method, developments in vital housing sector variables were examined over the period 2012-2021. Given data availability, SSA was performed for the variables of housing price, the number of residential building permits issued, and the number of units covered by the issued permits. The results indicate that the regional effect on housing prices was negative in 6 years and only positive in 4 years. Consequently, District 19 experienced lower growth in housing prices compared to the national average and the city of Tehran in most years. Additionally, the results demonstrate that the Housing Price Index (HPI), as a factor influencing supply, exhibited a similar effect with a time lag in most years. Specifically, when HPI in District 19 of Tehran Municipality rose more sharply than at both the national level and in Tehran city, housing supply there increased proportionally more relative to these broader geographic scales. Conversely, this relationship persisted when HPI declined.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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