نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
استادیار گروه اقتصاد اسلامی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
The confrontation between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran has entered a distinct and complex phase, referred to in this study as the "Third War of Attrition" (Jang-e Tahmili-ye Sevom). In its economic dimension, this phenomenon constitutes a hybrid offensive designed to impact "public livelihood," "destabilize monetary systems," and "strike at the country's critical infrastructure." The theoretical framework of this research is grounded in the "Resistance Economy" doctrine, employing scenario planning integrated with strategic game theory to explore plausible futures of this confrontation. From the intersection of both parties' choices—at three levels: early termination, protracted attrition, and hard escalation—nine scenarios are derived. The consequences of each scenario are assessed through four shock transmission channels: (1) monetary stability, (2) energy supply chains, (3) alternative monetary systems, and (4) social resilience. The findings reveal a spectrum of diverse outcomes depending on the scenario selected by each side. Based on the results, Iran's ultimate victory hinges on a paradigm shift from technocratic bureaucracy to the Resistance Economy model and the enhancement of popular resilience—provided that the governing theory of state governance also transitions to the Resistance Economy framework.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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