نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت
2 دانشجوی دکترای بخش عمومی دانشگاه تبریز، ایران.
3 دانشیار، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران.
4 استادیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Objective: This study examines the impact of external shocks on money demand in nine MENA countries over 1993–2023. Given the severe dependence of these countries on oil revenues and their deep integration into global financial markets, and despite the extensive literature on domestic determinants, the role of global uncertainty and external price shocks in this region has remained largely overlooked. This paper fills this gap by investigating the effects of global financial volatility and oil price fluctuations on monetary dynamics in these open economies. Methodology: The Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model is employed, which contributes considerably to improving estimation precision. This advanced panel approach simultaneously controls for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, thereby overcoming the methodological limitations of previous studies and providing unbiased short-run and long-run elasticities. Findings: In the short run, the inflation rate exerts a significant negative effect on money demand, while the real exchange rate, oil prices, and the VIX index show significant positive effects. Domestic and foreign interest rates, along with government spending, are found to be insignificant. In the long run, the negative effect of inflation intensifies, while the positive effects of the aforementioned variables remain robust. The adjustment coefficient (-0.75) indicates a high speed of adjustment back to long-run equilibrium (approximately 1.3 years). Conclusion: Money demand in the MENA region is more responsive to income shocks and global uncertainty than to interest rates. Therefore, precise calibration of monetary policies based on external indicators is essential. This finding has direct policy implications: central banks in oil-based economies should adopt flexible monetary frameworks that explicitly incorporate developments in oil markets and financial stress indicators; otherwise, misaligned policy interventions and instability in liquidity management will occur.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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