نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دکترای اقتصاد
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Chronic inflation is considered one of the structural and persistent challenges in Iran's economy, the explanation of which requires a multidimensional approach beyond classical frameworks. This study aims to empirically analyze inflationary mechanisms across short- and long-term horizons, testing two core hypotheses: first, the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between liquidity and inflation; and second, identifying the transmission mechanism of exchange rate shocks to inflation in the short term through two distinct channels, namely the direct channel of increased production costs and the indirect channel resulting from changes in money circulation behavior. To examine these hypotheses, quarterly data from the Iranian economy along with autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector autoregressive (VAR) econometric models were utilized. The results from estimating the first model indicate a positive and significant relationship between the level of liquidity and inflation in the long term. In the short term, the analysis of the second model, alongside impulse response functions (IRF) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD), reveals that exchange rate shocks are the dominant factor in inflation fluctuations, operating through two distinguishable pathways: first, the direct and sustained channel of increased production costs; and second, the indirect behavioral channel via an increased velocity of money. Accordingly, the findings emphasize the simultaneous importance of managing expectations, stabilizing the exchange rate in the short term, and implementing liquidity control policies in the long term to mitigate inflation dynamics in the Iranian economy.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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