نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم مالی، دانشگاه علوم تحقیقات، تهران، ایران.
2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد اسلامی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران.
3 دانشیار، گروه مدیریت مالی، بانک و بیمه، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
4 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد اسلامی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Purpose: Chronic inflation and the structural imbalance of the banking system have been two fundamental challenges of Iran's economy over the past two decades. In response to these issues, the Central Bank has, since the year 1399 (2020), implemented a quantitative balance sheet control policy with the aim of curbing liquidity growth and controlling inflation. The present study aims to identify and explain the channels through which this policy affects economic output under Iran's inflationary conditions.
Methodology: This study employs a qualitative approach using a systematic literature review and conceptual analysis. Data were collected through a review of credible domestic and international sources, and key concepts were extracted using open, axial, and selective coding and categorized based on three criteria: causal mechanism, empirical evidence, and generalizability to Iran's economy.
Findings: The findings indicate that this policy negatively affects economic output through four main channels: credit constraints on small and medium-sized enterprises; a change in the composition of credit facilities in favor of large enterprises; the intensification of banks' precautionary behavior and an increase in excess reserves; and increased financial stress and contagion risk in the interbank network. Iran's experience shows that this policy reduced liquidity growth from 40% to 25%, but had little effect on inflation and restricted small firms' access to credit facilities. A critique of conventional macroeconomic models also shows that these approaches lack the ability to analyze phenomena such as balance sheet control in Iran's inflationary and sanctioned economy.
Conclusion: The quantitative balance sheet control policy alone cannot curb inflation, and its success depends on the implementation of a comprehensive policy package that simultaneously includes structural reforms, fiscal discipline, and expectations management. The fundamental solution to curbing inflation in Iran is the targeted direction of liquidity toward production and improving the quality of budget spending.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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