تحلیل تاثیر تکانه‌های سیاست پولی بر نابرابری درآمد در ایران: کاربرد مدل خودرگرسیون برداری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصادسنجی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

10.22091/ise.2025.12776.1027

چکیده

کاهش نابرابری درآمدی به­عنوان یکی از اهداف حیاتی توسعه پایدار شناخته می‌شود. این مطالعه به بررسی تأثیر تکانه‌های سیاست پولی بر نابرابری درآمدی در ایران طی بازه زمانی ۱۳۵۸ تا ۱۴۰۱ می‌پردازد. بدین ‌منظور، از رهیافت خود­رگرسیون برداری(VAR) و توابع عکس‌­العمل آنی استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان داد که تکانه ناشی از رشد نقدینگی در ابتدا نابرابری درآمد را کاهش داده است، اما از دوره سوم به بعد، منجر به واکنشی مثبت و نامطلوب بر نابرابری درآمدی می‌شود. همچنین، تکانه وارده به نرخ سود بانکی کوتاه‌مدت در تمامی دوره­ها واکنشی مثبت از سوی نابرابری درآمد داشته است. از سوی دیگر، تکانه مثبت در نرخ ارز نیز با واکنش مثبت در نابرابری درآمد مواجه بوده است. در حالی­که، تکانه ناشی از رشد اقتصادی در ابتدا باعث افزایش نابرابری درآمد شده، اما پس از مدتی، این اثر معکوس شده و به بهبود توزیع درآمد منجر می‌گردد. این یافته­ها نقش کلیدی سیاست‌های پولی را در توزیع درآمد و نابرابری اقتصادی نشان می‌دهند و می‌توانند به­ عنوان راهنمایی مناسب برای سیاست‌گذاران اقتصادی مورد استفاده قرار گیرند تا با طراحی و اجرای سیاست‌های پولی هدفمند، گام‌های مؤثرتری در جهت کاهش نابرابری و تحقق توسعه پایدار برداشته شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Income Inequality in Iran: Application of the Vector Autoregression Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nader Mehregan 1
  • Mohammad Boushehri 2
  • Ahmadreza Ahmadi 3
1 Professor, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran.
2 PhD student, Department of Theoretical Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Ph.D. Student in Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran,
چکیده [English]

Reducing income inequality is recognized one of the vital goals for sustainable development. This study investigates the impact of monetary policy shocks on income inequality in Iran during the period from 1979 to 2022. For this purpose, a Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach and impulse response functions have been used. The results demonstrate (money supply) growth initially reduces income inequality, but, starting from the third period, it leads to a positive (undersirable) reaction in income inequality. Furthermore, the shock to short-term bank deposit rates results in a consistently positive response from income inequality across all periods. On the other hand, a positive shock to the exchange rate is also met with a positive response in income inequality. In contrast the shock resulting from economic growth initially increases income inequality, but after some time, this effect reverses and leads to an improvement in income distribution. These findings highlight the key role monetary policies in income distribution and economic inequality and can serve as a practical guide for economic policymakers to design and implement more effective and targeted monetary policies aimed at reducing inequality and achieving sustainable development.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Monetary Policy
  • Income Inequality
  • Gini Index
  • VAR
  • Iran
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