تحلیل اثر تورم بر امنیت غذایی در ایران با تاکید بر نقش متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی منتخب

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصادسنجی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

2 استاد اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران.

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصادسنجی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران.

10.22091/ise.2025.13535.1051

چکیده

غذا، پس از هوا و آب، حیاتی‌ترین نیاز انسان برای بقا به شمار می‌رود و امروزه دسترسی به غذای سالم بیش از پیش با دشواری‌هایی مواجه شده است. امنیت غذایی به معنای دسترسی پایدار و کافی به منابع غذایی مغذی و سالم اهمیت روزافزونی یافته و در دهه‌های اخیر، ایران با چالش‌های متعددی در این زمینه روبه‌رو بوده است؛ هدف دوم توسعه پایدار نیز تأمین غذای کافی، سالم و مقرون‌ به‌ صرفه برای همه است. هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی تأثیر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی، به ویژه نرخ تورم، بر امنیت غذایی در ایران طی سال‌های ۱۳۶۲ تا ۱۴۰۱ است. در این راستا، از رهیافت خودرگرسیون ‌برداری استفاده شد. نتایج به دست آمده نشان داد که تکانه‌ تورم موجب کاهش امنیت غذایی شده است، هرچند این اثر از دوره سوم به بعد به تدریج کاهش یافته است. همچنین، تکانه رشد اقتصادی در ابتدا تأثیر منفی بر امنیت غذایی دارد، اما با گذر زمان این اثر به سمت مثبت گرایش پیدا کرده و نهایتاً شدت آن کاهش یافته و به عبارتی تعدیل می‌شود. علاوه بر این، تکانه مثبت در نرخ ارز تماما با واکنش منفی امنیت غذایی همراه است؛ به گونه‌ای که تا حدود دوره چهارم شدت این واکنش افزایش یافته و سپس به تدریج کاهش یافته و به سمت صفر همگرا می‌شود. در نهایت، تکانه نابرابری درآمد در آغاز اثر منفی بر امنیت غذایی دارد، اما در ادامه این اثر مثبت شده و با گذشت زمان شدت آن کاهش یافته و به آرامی تعدیل می‌گردد. به طور کلی، نتایج این پژوهش موید آن بوده است که ایجاد ثبات اقتصادی و اتخاذ سیاست‌های مناسب کلان، نقش مهمی در بهبود و حفظ امنیت غذایی در کشور ایفا می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the Effect of Inflation on Food Security in Iran with Emphasis on the Role of Selected Macroeconomic Variables

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Boushehri 1
  • Nader Mehregan 2
  • Ahmadreza Ahmadi 3
1 Ph.D. Student in Econometrics,, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Professor, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran.
3 Ph.D. Student in Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran,
چکیده [English]

Food, after air and water, is considered the most vital need for human survival, and today access to healthy food is increasingly facing difficulties. Food security, meaning sustainable and sufficient access to nutritious and healthy food sources, has gained growing importance, and in recent decades, Iran has encountered multiple challenges in this regard; the second Sustainable Development Goal is also to ensure sufficient, healthy, and affordable food for all. The present study aims to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables, especially the inflation rate, on food security in Iran during the years 1983 to 2022. For this purpose, a vector autoregression (VAR) approach was employed. The results indicate that inflation shocks have led to a decrease in food security, although this effect gradually diminished starting from the third period. Furthermore, economic growth shocks initially exert a negative impact on food security, but over time this effect shifts toward positive and eventually diminishes, showing a moderated influence. In addition, positive shocks in the real exchange rate are entirely associated with a negative response in food security; this reaction intensifies approximately up to the fourth period, then gradually declines and converges to zero. Finally, income inequality shocks initially have a negative effect on food security, but later this effect becomes positive and its intensity gradually decreases, ultimately moderating over time. Overall, the findings of this study confirm that establishing economic stability and adopting appropriate macroeconomic policies play a crucial role in improving and maintaining food security in the country.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Food Security
  • Inflation
  • Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model
  • Economic Shocks
  • Time Series

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