نویسندگان
استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Housing, as one of the most fundamental human needs and a key component of sustainable urban development, has consistently attracted the attention of urban planners, policymakers, and researchers. The housing market, in particular, is among the most dynamic and unpredictable sectors of the economy. In a metropolis such as Tehran, an accurate understanding of developments and prevailing trends in the housing sector at the local scale is essential for formulating effective strategies that respond to the diverse and growing needs of residents. District 19 of Tehran, due to its distinctive physical, social, and economic characteristics, has been the site of notable dynamics and challenges in the housing sector. Gaining a deeper understanding of key housing related variables in such contexts requires the application of robust analytical tools capable of distinguishing intra regional factors from macro level influences and general trends. In this study, the Shift Share Analysis (SSA) method is employed to examine changes in key housing sector variables over the period 2012–2021 (1391–1400). Based on data availability, shift share analysis is conducted for housing prices (or the housing price index), the number of issued residential building permits, and the number of dwelling units included in the issued permits. The results indicate that in six out of ten years, the regional effect on housing prices was negative, while it was positive in only four years. Accordingly, District 19 of Tehran Municipality experienced lower housing price growth than the national level and the city of Tehran in most years. Furthermore, the findings show that the housing price index, as a key determinant of supply, exerted a similar effect on housing supply in most years with a time lag. Specifically, when the housing price index in District 19 increased more than at the national and city levels, housing supply in this district also increased more than in the country and the city of Tehran; conversely, when the price index declined, the same pattern was observed.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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